From the Islay desk · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-10-01

Laphroaig 10 is the nearest to fair on Islay, and still 9% over

mergedmay_publish truequality passsite_publish trueprices: 10 price claim(s) verified live

1/Islay's friendliest price this week still asks a toll: Laphroaig 10 at $97 comes nearest its own jury and sits 9% above it. Peat keeps a floor and no ceiling. Every one of the 16 Islay bottles got a live ticket at Dan Murphy's this Thursday; 5 have moved since.

2/The ruler here isn't dollar price. It's each bottle set against the fair value its own ten-seat jury gives it, read as a percentage. Not one dips under that number. So the near end is "least over" — closest to fair, never a discount.

3/The least-over end, all live. Laphroaig 10 leads at $97, +9.18%. Lagavulin 8 follows at $127, +10.56%. Ardbeg 10 at $121, +10.96%. A half-step back: the Wee Beastie at $106, +12.13%, and Lagavulin 11 Sweet Peat at $165, +12.9%.

4/What the island bills for, read across the shelf's pooled reviews: iodine, brine, a medicinal streak, woodsmoke, a note of smoked fish off the coals. Shelf character talking, not any single bottle's notes.

5/The dear end. Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair at $115 sits +33.1% over its own mean, the widest gap on the shelf and a real live price. The 12-year behind it at $128, +21.56%. Ardbeg An Oa, cheapest ticket at $75, still lands +21.13% — low price, lower jury.

6/So: a floor, no bargain, all 16 bottles above their own number, Laphroaig 10 the nearest. Gentlest way onto the island this week — the $106 Wee Beastie, or stretch for the $121 Ardbeg 10? Post your local ticket.

Sources

Coverage: 16 of 16 members priced live in the 2026-10-01 harvest (100%) — grounding.coverage (n_observed/n_members).
Price band $75.0–$150.0, median $113.5; scope-average CE 360° mean ≈ $98.32 — grounding.price_band, grounding.ce_360_mean_avg.
Shelf character words (region-level, parent-relative, pooled over 15 reviews): iodine, medicinal, salt, sea, smokiness, fish, barbecue — grounding.words (noise tokens "hot", "islay", "laden" dropped). No per-bottle tasting notes asserted; the words describe the shelf, not any one bottle.
Cool-down (decision 15): Islay (region): led 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-islay.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 5 of 16 bottles changed price or 360° zone (31%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)

End	Item	Price	Gap %	Priced
Hot 1	Laphroaig 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$97	+9.18%	observed 2026-10-01
Hot 2	Lagavulin 8 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$127	+10.56%	observed 2026-10-01
Hot 3	Ardbeg 10 Year Old Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$121	+10.96%	observed 2026-10-01
(hot)	Ardbeg Wee Beastie Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$106	+12.13%	observed 2026-10-01
(hot)	Lagavulin 11 Year Old Sweet Peat Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700ml	$165	+12.9%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 1	Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair Whisky 700mL	$115	+33.1%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 2	Bunnahabhain 12 Year Old Scotch Whisky 700mL	$128	+21.56%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 3	Ardbeg An Oa Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$75	+21.13%	observed 2026-10-01
(cold)	Lagavulin 16 Year Old Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL	$189	+20.29%	observed 2026-10-01
(cold)	Smokehead High Voltage Islay Single Malt Whisky 700mL	$127	+18.32%	observed 2026-10-01

Omissions

None recorded.

Notes for reviewer

Opening hook assigned in brief: Laphroaig 10 is the closest-to-fair bottle and still a premium (+9.18%). Post 1 opens on it and does not reuse the prior Islay piece's opener.
Cool-down: this scope led a merged Islay thread 21 days back and its finding changed (5 of 16 bottles moved price or 360° zone, 31% vs a 10% bar), so it may lead again; post 1 states the 5-of-16 change count. Full line is in ## Sources verbatim.
"Hot"/"cold" are value-signal labels only (position vs each bottle's own jury), never velocity or trend; no bottle sits below its own mean, so "hot" is least-over, not a discount.
Every dollar and gap % in the post appears in the ## Sources table or bullets.

Format note

Whole Shelf, scope Islay (region), vintage 2026-10-01.1, pack region-islay-aggregate.json. Gap basis PERCENTAGE; ce_gap_pct=(price−CE 360° mean)/price×100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot'=smallest premium (least over fair value), 'cold'=largest. No bottle sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is not a bargain. 'Hot'/'cold' are value labels only, never velocity or trend. Coverage 16 of 16 priced live in the 2026-10-01 harvest (100%). Sources holds the stored top/bottom notable-mover cut, not the full ranked shelf.

Frontmatter as merged

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source file: drafts/2026-10-01-whole-shelf-islay.md