Chivas 18 is $21 dearer than last week, and over its jury

Sources

• generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-17-replay/price-raid/chivas-regal-18-year-old-blended-scotch-whisky-700ml-03f2d0; harvest pair base 2026-09-10, latest 2026-09-17.
• This week's ticket: $136 (claim value 136.0; grounding.current_price 136.0), no member offer. Last week: $114.95 (grounding.baseline_price 114.95), no member offer — a like-for-like shelf comparison. Delta +$21.04, +18.3% (flag OK, corrected false).
• CE 360° fair value: mean $106.23, P50 $105.69, band [$103.96, $108.93]; gap over consensus 6.8% = 45th percentile (2026-09-17.r dossier chivas-regal-18-year-old-blended-scotch-neighbourhood.md, reference card). $106 and $109 are the rounded mean and band ceiling.
• Character: factor profile Sherry & Dried Fruit 0.17 (sherry, chocolate, walnut, dried fruit) + Orchard & Cereal 0.02 (same dossier).

Omissions

• No peer prices are quoted; the standing rests on the bottle's own CE 360° jury, not a live cross-read of the cohort's current tickets.
• No percentage move and no trend language: two dated snapshots cannot separate a repricing from anything else, so the post states this week's ticket and last week's and lets the jury figure carry the standing.

Notes for reviewer

• Clears the bar as a rise with real standing: $136 is over the CE 360° mean ($106.23) and its ceiling ($108.93), so the "over fair value" reason holds independent of the move.
• Replay draft on rehearsal vintage 2026-09-17.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay.

Format note

Price raid, rise direction. Move measured on the harvest pair 2026-09-10 → 2026-09-17: $114.95 last week, $136 this week, no member offer either week (like-for-like shelf comparison, not a member/non-member basis artefact). Standing read against the bottle's own CE 360° fair value (mean $106.23, band ceiling $108.93, 2026-09-17.r dossier). flag OK, corrected false, in_ce_cohort true.

{
 "date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "Chivas 18 is $21 dearer than last week, and over its jury",
 "angle": "price-raid",
 "position": "n/a",
 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone; the automated replay cycle grounds this on the week's harvest pair and the vintage's CE 360° bands, no spoke article backs it",
 "grounded_on": "harvest pair 2026-09-10 → 2026-09-17 (the move); 2026-09-17.r dossier (CE 360° fair value)",
 "may_publish": false,
 "replay": true,
 "review_priority": "standard",
 "artefact_id": "2026-09-17-replay/price-raid/chivas-regal-18-year-old-blended-scotch-whisky-700ml-03f2d0",
 "format_note": "Price raid, rise direction. Move measured on the harvest pair 2026-09-10 → 2026-09-17: $114.95 last week, $136 this week, no member offer either week (like-for-like shelf comparison, not a member/non-member basis artefact). Standing read against the bottle's own CE 360° fair value (mean $106.23, band ceiling $108.93, 2026-09-17.r dossier). flag OK, corrected false, in_ce_cohort true.",
 "claims": [
  {
   "item": "Chivas Regal 18 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 136
  }
 ],
 "subjects": [
  "Chivas Regal 18 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL"
 ],
 "verified_at": "2026-09-27T07:31:42.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py (harvest sidecar danmurphys_whisky_products_2026-09-17.normalised.csv, as of 2026-09-17)",
 "verified_prices": {
  "384924": 135.99
 },
 "verification_note": "1 price claim(s) verified live",
 "quality_gate": "pass",
 "gated_at": "2026-09-27T07:31:42.000Z",
 "site_publish": true
}