Scotch at Dan Murphy's, priced every Thursday. Lagavulin 16 and the ten bottles that define it.
Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05
vintage 2026-11-05.1
operator tier
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From the Blends desk · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-09-10

Blended's fair value hides in the litre bottles, not the trophies

mergedmay_publish falsequality passsite_publish trueprices: 10 price claim(s) verified live

1/If you want a blend that sits close to what its own peers reckon it's worth, look at the big litre bottles. Ballantine's Finest 1L at $69 lands dead on its CE 360° jury — zero premium, the fairest ticket on the whole blended shelf this Thursday.

2/The rest of the fair end keeps that shape. Johnnie Walker Red Label in the 1.125L at $77, then the plain litre at $69, both a bit over a quarter of a percent above their own juries. Cutty Sark at $59. Proper No. Twelve litre at $91 rounds out the hot pack.

3/Widen the frame and the floor holds: sixty-two blends, every one priced live this week. Scotch, Irish, Japanese, a couple of Australians — the lot, end to end, no curated subset.

4/Reads the way a blend reads. Vanilla and toffee up front, grain underneath, a little smoke, honey and orchard apple. Nothing showy. That's rather the job of a blend.

5/The cold end is where I'd slow down, and the surprise is that the widest gap isn't the dearest bottle. McConnell's Belfast at $81 sits about 40% over its own jury — a live ticket, not a stale one, but a big gap on a cheap bottle, so treat the size warily.

6/Then the trophies do the usual work. Chivas Regal 25 at $646 (about 22% over), Midleton Very Rare at $412 (also 22%), Hibiki Blossom Harmony at $691 (near 22%) and Hibiki Japanese Harmony 2021 at $730 (near 20%).

7/So the tidy read: fair value on the blended shelf lives in the everyday litres, and the premium climbs with the trophy names — with one cheap Irish outlier carrying the steepest gap of all. Weeknight pour, the $69 Ballantine's litre or the $59 Cutty Sark?

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-10-replay/whole-shelf/blended-whisky-style-d461f2, vintage 2026-09-10.r. Gap basis: percentage (grounding.gap_basis).
  • Coverage: 62 of 62 members observed (100%); price band $50.99–$730.00, median $74.245; CE 360° mean-avg about $100.18 (grounding.coverage, grounding.price_band, grounding.ce_360_mean_avg).
  • Shelf words (parent-relative, 54 reviews pooled): vanilla, smoke, toffee, whisky, grain, just, honey, apple, scotch, blended (grounding.words). No per-bottle tasting notes asserted; the words describe the shelf, not any one bottle.
  • Hot 5, smallest premium over own mean (grounding.hot, all observed): Ballantine's Finest 1L $69 (0.0% over); Johnnie Walker Red Label 1.125L $77 (0.27%); Johnnie Walker Red Label 1L $69 (0.29%); Cutty Sark Original $59 (0.34%); Proper No. Twelve 1L $91 (0.37%).
  • Cold 5, largest premium (grounding.cold): McConnell's Belfast $81 (39.95% over); Chivas Regal 25 Year Old $646 (22.29%); Midleton Very Rare $412 (22.17%); Hibiki Blossom Harmony $691 (21.60%); Hibiki Japanese Harmony 2021 $730 (19.58%).

Omissions

  • Full coverage: 62 of 62 members priced live this cycle, no carried (last-observed) prices to name.
  • The Sources cut is the aggregate's stored top/bottom movers, not the full 62-bottle ranking; the sidecar does not store every member's gap.
  • This is the blended style scope, pooling blends across Scotch, Irish, Japanese and Australian bottles; it overlaps region shelves on shared members. The framing here is the cross-country blend category.
  • 'Hot' and 'cold' are value-position labels only — distance from each bottle's own CE 360° mean, never sales velocity, popularity, or a price move over time. No bottle here sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is the smallest premium, not a bargain.

Notes for reviewer

None recorded.

Format note

Whole Shelf, scope Blended (whisky_style), vintage 2026-09-10.r (pack whisky_style-blended-aggregate.json). Gap basis: percentage — read from the aggregate as stored (max/min price ratio ≥ 2, and this shelf runs $50.99–$730.00). Coverage: 62 of 62 members priced live in the 2026-09-10 harvest (100%). ce_gap_pct = (price − ce_360_mean) / price × 100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot' is the smallest premium (closest to fair value, not a discount), 'cold' the largest. Sources holds the aggregate's stored top/bottom cut, not every member's gap.

Frontmatter as merged
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source file: drafts/2026-09-10-whole-shelf-blended.md