From the front page · Thread · Hot 21 / Cold 21 · 2026-08-06

No Scotch bottle this week sits under its own jury's price

mergedmay_publish falsequality passsite_publish falseprices: Ballantine's Finest Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for...

1/156 bottles across five Scotch shelves this week, pooled onto one yardstick: each bottle's price against what its own CE 360 jury reckons it is worth. How many came in under that mark? Not one.

2/Which makes 'hot' a relative word. It means nearest the line, not below it. Closest of the lot is Ballantine's Finest, $59 the litre, sitting dead on its mean, with Cutty Sark ($59) and Dimple 12 ($54) a hair behind.

3/The whole hot end is everyday blends. Dewar's White at $52, Label 5 at $70, a rum-cask Chivas at $75. Not discounts, any of them. Just the bottles nobody is charging a premium on right now.

4/The cold end is badge and age. Chivas Regal Ultis tops it at $296, better than half again its jury's number. Talisker Port Ruighe ($149) and the Compass Box Peat Monster ($102) carry the next-steepest percentages.

5/Climb the ladder and the premium holds: Aberlour A'Bunadh $170, Glenfarclas 25 at $390, Craigellachie 23 at $800. Age and rarity, all priced comfortably over what the model reads the liquid as worth.

6/Two shelves sat this cycle out. Lowlands had just four bottles priced live, under our coverage floor, so it is left whole. Campbeltown had nothing on the shelf at all. That is why the cold cut runs nineteen, not a clean twenty-one.

7/The honest read of the Scotch wall: no bargains, only bottles nearer or further from fair, and the value all pooled at the cheap blended end. Which everyday blend earns the shelf spot, the $54 Dimple or the $59 Ballantine's?

Sources

generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-08-06-replay/hot-21-cold-21/ballantine-s-finest-blended-scotch-whisky-1l-cutty-sark-orig-648501, vintage 2026-08-06.r, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json.
Pool: 156 members, price band $51.90-799.99, mean-avg CE 360 about $127.22. Contributing scopes (Whole Shelf packs, all 100% observed this cycle): Speyside (76), Highlands (32), Islay (15), Islands (10), Multi-Regional Blend (19). Scale: ce_gap_pct, percentage premium over each item's own CE 360 mean.
Hot end (smallest premium, all observed): Ballantine's Finest 1L $59 (0.0% over); Cutty Sark $59 (0.11%); Dimple 12 $54 (0.38%); Dewar's White 1L $69 (0.39%); Dewar's White 700mL $52 (0.56%); Label 5 Classic Black 1L $70 (0.42%); Chivas Regal Extra Rum Cask $75 (0.68%).
Cold end (largest premium, all observed): Chivas Regal Ultis $296 (52.26% over); Talisker Port Ruighe $149 (47.98%); Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair $108 (33.08%); Compass Box The Peat Monster $102 (32.84%); Aberlour A'Bunadh $170 (27.07%); Glenfarclas 25 $390 (24.18%); Chivas Regal 25 $646 (21.51%); Craigellachie 23 $800 (20.65%).
Coverage / shortfall: requested_cut 21; delivered 21 hot, 19 cold. Omitted scope Lowlands (4 of 4 priced live = 100%, but below the 6-member Whole Shelf floor). Missing scope Campbeltown (no catalogue items this cycle). Two Lowlands cold entries (Compass Box Glasgow Blend, Bladnoch Samsara) were removed from the cold cut and not backfilled.

Omissions

Nothing in the pool is under its own CE 360 mean; ce_gap_pct is never negative, so 'hot' is the smallest premium, not a bargain. Stated in post 1.
Lowlands omitted (4 of 4 priced live, under the 6-member floor) and Campbeltown missing (no bottles), both named. The cut therefore runs 21 hot / 19 cold against a requested 21; the two vacated cold ranks were not backfilled.
Only items live-checked in their own Whole Shelf piece are pooled; a scope that checked a subset would propagate that gap here, but all five contributing scopes were 100% observed this cycle.
'Hot'/'cold' are value-position labels only, never sales velocity, popularity or a movement over time.

Notes for reviewer

Replay draft, grounded on rehearsal vintage 2026-08-06.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay. May show on the site (site_publish), never goes to X.
No trend or mechanism language: every claim is the current cross-sectional position of a bottle against its own consensus, not a change over time.
The pooled hot end overlaps the Speyside / Highlands / Multi-Regional Blend Whole Shelf pieces by design (same bottles, one common percentage scale); the framing here is the cross-region pool, not any single shelf.

Format note

Hot 21 / Cold 21, light form, vintage 2026-08-06.r. ce_gap_pct is each bottle's premium over its own CE 360 consensus and is never negative, so 'hot' means closest to fair value, not below it; nothing in the 156-member pool sits under its mean this cycle. One common percentage scale across all pooled regions. Contributing: Speyside, Highlands, Islay, Islands, Multi-Regional Blend. Lowlands omitted (4 of 4 priced live, under Whole Shelf's 6-member floor); Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items). The cut runs 21 hot / 19 cold: two Lowlands cold entries removed and not backfilled. Sources cites the contributing Whole Shelf packs.

Frontmatter as merged

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 "date": "2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "No Scotch bottle this week sits under its own jury's price",
 "angle": "hot-21-cold-21",
 "position": "n/a",
 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone; the automated cycle grounds this on the vintage build and live tickets, no long-form article backs it",
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  },
  {
   "item": "Monkey Shoulder Blended Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "value",
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  },
  {
   "item": "Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
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  },
  {
   "item": "Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
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 ],
 "subjects": [
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  "Highlands",
  "Islay",
  "Islands",
  "Multi-Regional Blend"
 ],
 "verified_at": "2026-09-27T05:07:31.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py (harvest sidecar danmurphys_whisky_products_2026-08-06.normalised.csv, as of 2026-08-06)",
 "verification_note": "Ballantine's Finest Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Cutty Sark Original Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Dimple 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Dewar's White Label Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Label 5 Classic Black Blended Scotch Whi: no Stockcode resolved for this name; J&B Rare Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Johnnie Walker Red Label Blended Scotch : no Stockcode resolved for this name; Dewar's White Label Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Dewar's 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisk: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glen Moray Shiraz Finish Whisky 700mL: no Stockcode resolved for this name; The Glenlivet Founder's Reserve Single M: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Johnnie Walker Red Label Blended Scotch : no Stockcode resolved for this name; Chivas Regal Extra 13 Year Old Tequila C: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glen Moray Peated Single Malt Scotch Whi: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glen Moray Sherry Cask Single Malt Scotc: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glen Moray Classic Single Malt Scotch Wh: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glen Moray Classic Port Cask Single Malt: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Chivas Regal Extra Blended Scotch Whisky: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Jura Scotch Whisky Rum Cask Finish 700mL: no Stockcode resolved for this name; McAllister Scotch Whisky 1L: no Stockcode resolved for this name; The Glen Grant Arboralis Single Malt Sco: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Chivas Regal Ultis Blended Malt Scotch W: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Talisker Port Ruighe Single Malt Scotch : no Stockcode resolved for this name; Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair Whisky 700mL: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Compass Box The Peat Monster Blended Mal: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Aberlour A'Bunadh Single Malt Scotch Whi: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glenfarclas 25 Year Old Single Malt Scot: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Ardbeg An Oa Islay Single Malt Scotch Wh: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glenmorangie Signet 700mL: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Bunnahabhain 12 Year Old Scotch Whisky 7: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Chivas Regal 25 Year Old Blended Scotch : no Stockcode resolved for this name; Craigellachie 23 Year Old Single Malt Sc: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Lagavulin 16 Year Old Islay Single Malt : no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glengoyne Cask Strength Single Malt Scot: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Tomintoul 25YO Speyside Single Malt Scot: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Laphroaig Quarter Cask Scotch Whisky 700: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Laphroaig 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch: no Stockcode resolved for this name; The Macallan Double Cask 18 Years Old Si: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Monkey Shoulder Blended Malt Scotch Whis: no Stockcode resolved for this name; Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 Year Old Single: no Stockcode resolved for this name",
 "quality_gate": "pass",
 "gated_at": "2026-09-27T05:07:31.000Z",
 "site_publish": false
}

source file: drafts/2026-08-06-hot-21-cold-21-nobody-beats-the-jury.md